Extrapolation error of linear regression lines for a two-cluster data set












0














I am studying on some linear regression problems using the least-squares method and stumbled upon a problem regarding the error when extrapolating far-away datapoints.



About the problem: For a point $y$ given by best fitting line, described by



$y = ax + b$,



where $a$ and $b$ are the coefficients achieved by applying the least-squares-method to a given data set,
we know that generally, the error or the variance for $y$, will increase, the further we move away from our actual data, while the variance will be minimal at the mean position of $x$ of our given data set. This is so far totally clear for me.



But now I wondered:



Say, I have a given data set that consists of two clusters, with many datapoints around a very small negative position $j$ and another cluster at a very big positive position $k$.



Wouldn't the overall error of the best fitting line be decreased now? Will our line, for example for interpolating points in between, be a better fit with this kind of measurement, than a line that comes from only one data cluster int the 'middle' of the two-cluster version?



I hope I explained my problem sufficiently and I am excited for your suggestions!










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    I am studying on some linear regression problems using the least-squares method and stumbled upon a problem regarding the error when extrapolating far-away datapoints.



    About the problem: For a point $y$ given by best fitting line, described by



    $y = ax + b$,



    where $a$ and $b$ are the coefficients achieved by applying the least-squares-method to a given data set,
    we know that generally, the error or the variance for $y$, will increase, the further we move away from our actual data, while the variance will be minimal at the mean position of $x$ of our given data set. This is so far totally clear for me.



    But now I wondered:



    Say, I have a given data set that consists of two clusters, with many datapoints around a very small negative position $j$ and another cluster at a very big positive position $k$.



    Wouldn't the overall error of the best fitting line be decreased now? Will our line, for example for interpolating points in between, be a better fit with this kind of measurement, than a line that comes from only one data cluster int the 'middle' of the two-cluster version?



    I hope I explained my problem sufficiently and I am excited for your suggestions!










    share|cite|improve this question









    New contributor




    felixei is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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      0







      I am studying on some linear regression problems using the least-squares method and stumbled upon a problem regarding the error when extrapolating far-away datapoints.



      About the problem: For a point $y$ given by best fitting line, described by



      $y = ax + b$,



      where $a$ and $b$ are the coefficients achieved by applying the least-squares-method to a given data set,
      we know that generally, the error or the variance for $y$, will increase, the further we move away from our actual data, while the variance will be minimal at the mean position of $x$ of our given data set. This is so far totally clear for me.



      But now I wondered:



      Say, I have a given data set that consists of two clusters, with many datapoints around a very small negative position $j$ and another cluster at a very big positive position $k$.



      Wouldn't the overall error of the best fitting line be decreased now? Will our line, for example for interpolating points in between, be a better fit with this kind of measurement, than a line that comes from only one data cluster int the 'middle' of the two-cluster version?



      I hope I explained my problem sufficiently and I am excited for your suggestions!










      share|cite|improve this question









      New contributor




      felixei is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.











      I am studying on some linear regression problems using the least-squares method and stumbled upon a problem regarding the error when extrapolating far-away datapoints.



      About the problem: For a point $y$ given by best fitting line, described by



      $y = ax + b$,



      where $a$ and $b$ are the coefficients achieved by applying the least-squares-method to a given data set,
      we know that generally, the error or the variance for $y$, will increase, the further we move away from our actual data, while the variance will be minimal at the mean position of $x$ of our given data set. This is so far totally clear for me.



      But now I wondered:



      Say, I have a given data set that consists of two clusters, with many datapoints around a very small negative position $j$ and another cluster at a very big positive position $k$.



      Wouldn't the overall error of the best fitting line be decreased now? Will our line, for example for interpolating points in between, be a better fit with this kind of measurement, than a line that comes from only one data cluster int the 'middle' of the two-cluster version?



      I hope I explained my problem sufficiently and I am excited for your suggestions!







      regression least-squares data-analysis error-propagation






      share|cite|improve this question









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      edited yesterday









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      asked yesterday









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